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Actualizado Jueves, 22 septiembre 2022 –
Durará mientras Moscú no se plantee el dilema: Putin o Rusia
«Nuestro soberano tiene unos planes grandísimos en su cabeza para absorber Manchuria y ocupar Corea», escribió el ministro de Guerra, el general Kuropatkin, en febrero de 1903. Sus aduladores pretendían otorgar al zar el título honorífico de Almirante del Pacífico, recuperar el honor perdido en la primera contienda contra Japón y demostrar a Inglaterra que no la necesitaba. Nicolás, sostiene Montefiore, no quería la guerra, pero Kuropatkin le convenció de que «el ejército japonés era un chiste colosal». Japón lanzó en enero de 1904 su última oferta: una Manchuria rusa y una Corea japonesa. Japón golpeó primero a la flota Port Arthur.
El ejército ruso no estaba bien pertrechado y el zar confió en una guerra relámpago. La guerra se complicó y Rusia reunió a 300.000 hombres. Rusia perdió, el zar convocó la Duma tras las revueltas del Palacio de Invierno, Theodore Roosevelt obtuvo el Nobel de la Paz por las negociaciones entre los contendientes, Nicolás II justificó el antisemitismo -«nueve de cada diez agitadores son judíos»- y los pogromos -especialmente en Ucrania-, y el descontento social germinó la revolución posterior. Los partidarios del zar corearon: «Zar, religión y patria».
Antes, cuenta Pipes, en 1899, el gobierno publicó decretos provisionales para atemorizar a los estudiantes y sofocar sus protestas. Los condenados por mala conducta serían llamados a filas. La Corte del zar no iba de farol: 200 universitarios de Kiev y San Petersburgo fueron incorporados a la milicia. Sin embargo, hacia fuera, el zar mostró otra faz: «Un relámpago» de paz «procedente del Norte» sacudió el pesimismo internacional, narra Tuchman. Nicolás II entregó en agosto de 1898 una «rama de olivo» a las potencias occidentales: propuso la convocatoria de una conferencia para limitar la producción de armamento.
Aquella autocracia estaba en las últimas y el zar era dubitativo y vacilante. Las madres y esposas de los soldados reclamaron la vuelta de sus muchachos en 1917. Se les unieron los obreros. Rusia era un imperio en descomposición. La autocracia de hoy es igual de implacable pero mucho más obstinada. El aislamiento de Putin provoca el efecto de la imprevisibilidad. La movilización parcial de reservistas es una muestra de debilidad pero constituye un penúltimo desafío e incrementa exponencialmente los riesgos: Putin reconoce por la vía de los hechos que la «operación especial» es una guerra; y si involucra al pueblo no puede permitirse perderla; durará mientras Moscú no se plantee el dilema: Putin o Rusia
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